Lockdown 4.0 is due to end tomorrow, May 31.
It is not yet clear if the Lockdown will be further extended.
But it is hard to imagine that a full opening up of country is going to happen anytime soon.
Lockdown 4.0 has seen an explosion in the number of daily new cases. Before this edition of lockdown started, the average number of new cases reported daily were around 4000-5000 mark. But in the last 14 days, we have seen an unprecedented spike. Now, we are seeing a daily increase of around 7000 to 8000 new cases. So the situation has only gotten worse.
Increase in number of new cases has a lot to do with increased testing. I read somewhere that some states have started testing asymptomatic contacts of positive cases. This may have led to the spike we are seeing.
Most new cases in my state of Uttarakhand, have been been related to those migrants who are now heading back from various places in the country.
With ease on restrictions on travel, more cases are likely to emerge in places where we were earlier witnessing a flattening of curve.
With only 4 or 5 states accounting for majority of the active cases in the country, a partial opening up of the country is possible.
I don't think states like Maharashtra, Delhi or Gujarat are going to ease restrictions any time soon.
India has broken into the top ten countries in the world with respect to the total number of Covid19 cases. In my opinion, this was bound to happen.
Most experts say that we are going to see the peak of infection rate in India sometime in July.
With the current doubling rate, I think we are easily looking at more than 5 lakh cases by then.
Everyone says that actual number of cases are way more than the number that we have right now. People who are actually getting tested are either contacts of those positive or those that are manifesting severe symptoms.
And figures from China and Italy show that asymptomatic cases make up around 70-80% of total number of cases. This leads us to assume that the actual number of active cases right now in the country are far greater.
It also means that transmission is happening as we speak and will increase as we go beyond Lockdown 4.0.
One can't imagine how this is going to end. We're hoping that either the Virus mutates and becomes less dangerous or sufficient number of people get infected and we somehow develop herd immunity.
Let's wait and watch.
It is not yet clear if the Lockdown will be further extended.
But it is hard to imagine that a full opening up of country is going to happen anytime soon.
Lockdown 4.0 has seen an explosion in the number of daily new cases. Before this edition of lockdown started, the average number of new cases reported daily were around 4000-5000 mark. But in the last 14 days, we have seen an unprecedented spike. Now, we are seeing a daily increase of around 7000 to 8000 new cases. So the situation has only gotten worse.
Increase in number of new cases has a lot to do with increased testing. I read somewhere that some states have started testing asymptomatic contacts of positive cases. This may have led to the spike we are seeing.
Most new cases in my state of Uttarakhand, have been been related to those migrants who are now heading back from various places in the country.
With ease on restrictions on travel, more cases are likely to emerge in places where we were earlier witnessing a flattening of curve.
With only 4 or 5 states accounting for majority of the active cases in the country, a partial opening up of the country is possible.
I don't think states like Maharashtra, Delhi or Gujarat are going to ease restrictions any time soon.
India has broken into the top ten countries in the world with respect to the total number of Covid19 cases. In my opinion, this was bound to happen.
Most experts say that we are going to see the peak of infection rate in India sometime in July.
With the current doubling rate, I think we are easily looking at more than 5 lakh cases by then.
Everyone says that actual number of cases are way more than the number that we have right now. People who are actually getting tested are either contacts of those positive or those that are manifesting severe symptoms.
And figures from China and Italy show that asymptomatic cases make up around 70-80% of total number of cases. This leads us to assume that the actual number of active cases right now in the country are far greater.
It also means that transmission is happening as we speak and will increase as we go beyond Lockdown 4.0.
One can't imagine how this is going to end. We're hoping that either the Virus mutates and becomes less dangerous or sufficient number of people get infected and we somehow develop herd immunity.
Let's wait and watch.
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